Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Senate Politics . . . Why Georgia Why?

Looks like Ted Stevens will have a lot more time to look at Russia from the wrap-around deck installed at his house by an oil company in violation of several federal laws.

Politico is reporting Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D-AK) has won the wild and wooly Senate sweepstakes way up north, and wont be able to see Russia anymore, as he'll be joining the largest pack of Senate Democrats since the Watergate era.

That win coupled with Sen. Lieberman's slap on the wrist in the caucus today, leaves the Democrats at 58 seats with two outstanding and within striking distance of the magic 60 that would make President-Elect Obama into an unstoppable legislative force.

It really is a moment to stop and take inventory. After the 2002 elections, only 6 years ago right now, the GOP controlled the Presidency, both houses of Congress, the Supreme Court and a majority of the nation's governorships.

You could not destroy a party in power more thoroughly and more quickly than the Democrats have done to the 'pubs in the past 6 years. There have been only a handful of these realignment periods in American history, the most recent of which took place in 1978-80 with the Reagan Revolution.

The truth is most of the times a party has been washed out to this degree, another party has stepped in to reset the bipartisan balance we have traditionally enjoyed. I'm not predicting disbandment, but I will predict the GOP that rises out of this disaster will be different in some significant way from the one we know now. Exactly what that change will be, we have yet to see.

The big loser in the Stevens race? Gov. Sarah Palin, who wont be coming to Washington at all unless she can take on and beat the incumbent Begich. Possible? Sure, anything's possible. But for now she's got a budget hurting bad from declining oil revenues and a government in D.C. that doesnt take her calls. Incidentally, Dick Cavett, of all people, has a grea blog post today about the Wild Wordsmith of Wasila that's funnier than anything you or I have ever written.

But, alas all dreams result in waking. The fact is, even if we pick up the less than 200 votes needed for Franken to win MN, there is the Georgia runoff in December that pits incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) versus newcomer Jim Martin. A third party candidate forced the runoff. Even though Obama has sent a ton of staffers in, the question is whose voters will come out? The answer could determine the fate of the Senate. Something tells me if the MN race gives us 59, and the focus of the country turns to GA, participation will go up and we stand a better chance of getting 60.

My bet? I don't think we pull the inside straight and get both seats. Even in that case there are GOP Senators who will play ball, like Collins and Snowe of ME and on some issues - gasp! - McCain of AZ.

Should be a fun few weeks.

No comments: